US Inflation from 1963 to 2015

What Drove Inflation from 1963 to 2015

Postwar Boom: The end of wartime controls unleashed a burst of inflation in 1946–48 as pent-up consumer demand met supply shortages. After that adjustment, the postwar boom settled into a long era of moderate inflation and strong real growth. The GI Bill, suburban expansion, a baby boom, and rising consumer spending drove prosperity. Inflation averaged around 2% per year through most of the 1950s and early 1960s.

Great Society & Vietnam: President Johnson's Great Society programs and escalating Vietnam War spending drove federal deficits higher without compensating tax increases. The Federal Reserve, under political pressure to keep rates low, accommodated this fiscal expansion. Inflation, which had been below 2% in the early 1960s, climbed steadily past 5% by 1969. Nixon imposed wage and price controls in 1971, temporarily suppressing inflation while setting the stage for a more severe outbreak.

Stagflation: The 1973 Arab oil embargo sent oil prices quadrupling almost overnight, triggering a global recession and double-digit US inflation simultaneously. A second oil price shock in 1979–80 doubled energy costs again. The toxic combination of high inflation and high unemployment — stagflation — exposed the limits of traditional demand management. Paul Volcker's appointment as Federal Reserve chairman in 1979 marked the turning point, as aggressive rate hikes eventually broke the inflationary spiral.

Disinflation: Volcker's medicine worked, but at a steep price: the 1981–82 recession was the deepest since the Depression, with unemployment exceeding 10%. Inflation fell rapidly from above 13% to below 4% by 1983. The subsequent expansion was long and vigorous, supported by falling oil prices, deregulation, and tax cuts. The Federal Reserve established credibility as an inflation fighter, anchoring expectations and keeping prices relatively stable through the rest of the decade.

Moderate Growth: A mild recession in 1990–91 gave way to the longest US economic expansion on record, running through March 2001. Globalization, technology productivity gains, and Federal Reserve credibility kept inflation low and stable. The 2001 dot-com bust and 9/11 attacks caused a brief, shallow recession. The subsequent expansion was driven by housing and consumer credit, with inflation remaining tame as Chinese goods imports suppressed goods prices globally.

Financial Crisis: The collapse of the US housing bubble triggered a global financial crisis of historic proportions. As mortgage-backed securities lost value and interbank lending froze, the Federal Reserve slashed rates to zero and deployed emergency lending facilities. The economy contracted sharply in 2008–09, and deflationary pressures emerged as credit collapsed and unemployment surged toward 10%. Massive fiscal stimulus and quantitative easing gradually stabilized conditions, but recovery was painfully slow.

Low Inflation: The post-crisis recovery was characterized by historically low inflation despite extraordinary monetary stimulus. The Federal Reserve kept rates near zero until 2015, expanded its balance sheet to $4.5 trillion through quantitative easing, yet consistently undershot its 2% inflation target. Labor market slack, globalization, technology-driven price competition, and weak wage growth all contributed to the persistently low inflation environment that puzzled economists throughout the decade.

Understanding the Numbers

Over these 52 years, prices increased more than fourfold — a total inflation rate of +674.6%. The annualized rate of +4.02% per year was above the historical average of roughly 3.3% per year.

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